Shameless self-promotion — I aced this quiz.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/probability-quiz-results-and-winners-321/?mod=WSJBlog
Shameless self-promotion — I aced this quiz.
http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/probability-quiz-results-and-winners-321/?mod=WSJBlog
From the Financial Times, because all of a sudden I am seeing Draaisma’s name a lot, and I want to track his record. Especially since his message resonates with me.
Draaisma: “The Bear Market Rally is Over”
Is Morgan Stanley’s equity strategist just unimpressed with the Bank of England’s efforts at a rescue package?
The second half of the bear market rally turned out to be rather shortlived, and Teun Draaisma is calling the top:
MSCI Europe is now up 11% since its trough on March 17. The biggest certainty for the next 12 months, in our view, is that there will be a big earnings miss, as margins are at all-time high levels while top-line growth is slowing and costs are rising, and expectations are too high. However, as is common in bear markets, we expected a bear market rally of 10%+ on the back of a drastic policy reaction to the problems at hand….
… We think that the bear market rally is now over, mainly because most policy action has now been taken or is now fully expected, while our all-important market timing indicators have given us the warning that the rally is over.
In a word, no. From The Big Picture:
One of the more common refrains we keep hearing is that the worst of the credit crisis is behind us. Not only that, but banks have written down so much bad debt, that there is an upside surprise ahead of us!
I’m not so sure about that. As to the first part, credit spreads, mortgage rates, and the actions of the Bank of England strongly imply we are still in the thick of it. As to the latter, I simply doubt management has been that forthcoming.
Tags: creditcrunch
Latest petroleum production figures are out, in The Oil Drum.
I had a figure in my head of 85 Mbbl/da — that seems to be all liquid fuels, not just crude oil. Good to know.
There seems to be a divergence in the total liquids number since late 2006, between the IEA (international) and the EIA (US govt). Why is this?
The March 2008 edition of Oilwatch Monthly can be downloaded at this weblink (PDF, 1.65 MB, 21 pp).
Figure 1 – World Liquids Fuel Production January 2002 – March 2008
Tags: oil
Commodities are expensive. Some see this as a temporary thing — that as the recession kicks in, prices will come back down due to lack of demand. Others see it as a response to longer-term response to supply and demand fundamentals. Paul Krugman is in this latter group.
We’ve had a huge runup in commodity prices — fuels, food, metals.
But why? Broadly, the debate is between those who see it as a
speculative phenomenon, driven by some combination of low interest
rates and irrational exuberance, and those who see it as a collision of
rapidly growing demand with constrained supply.
He backs it up with charts to show that metal and oil inventories are in line with recent history.
Tags: inflation, commodities
Why a blog? I follow the news, sometimes I have thoughts about it, sometimes I just want to save something, and have all these somethings findable from one place. Sometimes I want to be educated about issues. Somehow a bookmarking service with tags just doesn’t seem like enough.
There are certain subjects that interest me:
Economic issues:
Politics:
Web design, and programming generally
Other stuff as it comes up.
Why now? Because Flock makes it easy.
Tags: meta
Stick around. I got this set up, but the shopping list calls. Back later.